The Saints offense has averaged five points per game the past two weeks.
The New Orleans Saints close out their 2024 season with a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday. The Saints have nothing to play for, but the Bucs are still in the race for the NFC South with the Falcons, meaning if the Saints win, they open the door for their arch rivals to get in. But if they lose they also let the Bucs in, so it’s an interesting situation.
Let’s just keep it 100% honest. The Saints offense is bad when Derek Carr is not playing. It’s not typically super great when he’s out there either (outside of weeks 1 and 2), but it is flat out not good when he’s injured. Spencer Rattler has started/entered in relief in six games and the Saints offense has averaged 12.3 points per game in those games. Obviously injuries haven’t helped, but that is still not good.
Note: There’s an off chance that Carr does play this week. He’s going through a “simulation” on Thursday or Friday, but I’m writing this under the assumption he is out for Sunday’s game.
This week, Rattler and the Saints offense face a Buccaneers defense that has been stingy this year. They’re surrendering 22 points per game, a number that has dropped to 19 over their last three games. However, the last time these two faced off, Rattler had arguably his best game of the year, throwing for 243 yards and a touchdown, but he did have two interceptions. He led the offense to 20 points (Shaheed had a return touchdown), which is the most they’ve put up with him under center.
Despite being 17th in points per game allowed, Tampa’s secondary has given up nearly 250 passing yards per game, which is 29th in the league. Their secondary has been exposed a lot during the year, so Rattler and Co. may be more efficient through the air than in recent weeks. If he can keep the turnovers down, then maybe the Saints offense can get some rhythm.
Where Tampa’s defense excels is in run defense. Opponents rush for just 99.9 yards per game (5th) and 4.3 yards per carry (10th) against the Bucs, which has helped mask some deficiencies in their secondary. The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara and possibly Kendre Miller this week, which means Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jamaal Williams will likely be the RB1 and RB2. The Saints run game, which has already been pretty bad without Kamara, has their toughest test in a long time this week, which makes me believe they’ll have a hard time moving the football on the ground.
So, if the ground game isn’t working, Spencer Rattler is going to have a lot more on his shoulders, which means more drop backs, which means more opportunities for sacks. When Carr plays, the Saints give up less than one sack per game. When Rattler plays, that number jumps to nearly four per game. Unfortunately for the Saints, the Bucs are really good at getting after the quarterback. The average 2.8 sacks per game, which ranks 7th in the league. For reference, the Raiders got after Rattler three times a week ago, and they rank 19th in sacks per game.
This is going to be a tough challenge for the Saints offense. If Chris Olave returns this week – he was a full participant in practice all week, but could still sit to be safe – then I think there’s a chance Rattler could have a good game. The key will be keeping him protected long enough for him to get the ball to the open guy. If they can keep the pocket clean and give him some sort of a run game, they could have some success, but it won’t be easy.
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