It was back in 2019 when the NBA draft saw a change to their lottery system. Rather than the team with the worst record having the best chance of receiving the first pick, now the three-worst records all have equal chances. Those three teams each have a 14% chance. With the New Orleans Pelicans defeating the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday night, the three teams with the best draft lottery odds are now likely known.
Teams With The Three-Best Draft Lottery Odds Nearly Set In Stone
Pelicans Hurt NBA Draft Lottery Odds By Winning
In a contest that meant nothing for playoff implications, the Pelicans defeated the Hornets by the score of 98-94. The victory by New Orleans improved their record on the season to 21-54. What it didn’t improve was the Pelicans chances of securing Cooper Flagg and the top overall pick.
That is because the matchup was between the teams with the third and fourth-worst records in the NBA. New Orleans now owns a 2.5-game lead over the Hornets. The loss dropped Charlotte’s record to 18-56. The team has already shut down LaMelo Ball for the rest of the season to undergo minor procedures on his knee and ankle. Six of their eight remaining games are against teams at least in a Play-In Tournament position, so it’s hard to see how the Hornets can win enough to catch the Pelicans in the standings.
Meanwhile, there are two teams that have even worse records than Charlotte. Those squads are the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, the two bottom-feeders of their respective conferences. Both teams have 16 wins with Utah having one more loss (59 for Jazz, 58 for Wizards). That means the Pelicans hold a five-game lead over the Jazz and 4.5 over the Wizards. With just seven games left for Utah and eight for Washington, it would take an absolute miracle for either to win enough to overtake New Orleans in the standings.
Results Since New Rules Have Been Implemented
As mentioned, the NBA draft lottery underwent a change in 2019. The 2025 NBA Draft will be the seventh one since the reformed lottery odds. How often since then has one of the bottom-three teams secured the first overall pick?
The teams with the three-worst records have a combined 42% chance of receiving the first selection in the draft. Thus far, one of those three teams has gotten the top choice in four of six years (66.7%). It was four straight years that it happened from 2020-23. In those years, the Minnesota Timberwolves selected Anthony Edwards (2020), the Detroit Pistons took Cade Cunningham (2021), the Orlando Magic landed Paolo Banchero (2022), and the San Antonio Spurs added Victor Wembanyama (2023).
The only two years that one of the teams with a 14% chance did not get the top pick was the first year of the lottery change and the most recent draft lottery. In 2019, the Pelicans received lottery luck, as they had a 6% chance of winning the lottery. They selected Zion Williamson with their top choice. Last year, the Atlanta Hawks had just a 3% chance of winning, but did so. They ended up taking Zaccharie Risacher.
The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for Monday, May 12.
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