Welcome to Nashville
It’s the most wonderful time of the year: March Madness.
The SEC Tournament begins in Nashville as the No. 12 seed Arkansas Razorbacks take on No. 13 Vanderbilt (6:00 P.M., SEC Network) and No. 14 Missouri plays No. 11 Georgia to close out night one of the tournament (8:30 P.M., SEC Network). The entire bracket is listed below:
LSU has Wednesday off and will be the first game on Thursday. The 8th-seeded Tigers will play No. 9 Mississippi State at noon on SEC Network. If Matt McMahon wants to take LSU to the big dance they’ll have to win the tournament. That’s it. That’s LSU’s only path. Even if LSU makes it to the championship game and takes out the highest seeds on their side of the bracket along the way (No. 1 Tennessee in the quarterfinals, and No. 4 Auburn in the semis) that likely still won’t be enough a resumé boost to get LSU on the right side of the bubble.
But postseason play beyond the SEC Tournament still exists for LSU. Enter the NIT and its new format.
There are now 12 automatic bids handed out by the NIT to the top two teams from the ACC, B1G, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, and SEC who do not make the NCAA Tournament. From there, the 20 best remaining schools are selected by the NIT Committee.
Now how does this affect LSU? As it stands right now, the SEC is projected to have six teams that are absolute locks for NCAA Tournament: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The SEC will also likely get a seventh team in and that’ll come down to Texas A&M and Mississippi State, whom LSU plays tomorrow.
Remember how I said for the NIT the top two Power Conference teams that don’t make the NCAA get an automatic bid? LSU’s 10th in the SEC in NET. So assuming seven SEC teams make the NCAA, that means there’s still two teams ahead of LSU for the NIT meaning the Tigers are on the NIT bubble.
What I’m saying is tomorrow’s LSU-Mississippi State game is a surprisingly pretty important game. If Mississippi State wins they’re likely in the NCAA Tournament; the same logic applies to LSU with the NIT: win and likely in. And as an added bonus, the winner of tomorrow’s game also gets the satisfaction of knowing you just ended your opponent’s postseason dreams. Schadenfreude!
Mississippi State is going to be coming into Thursday’s game desperate. The Bulldogs had one of the toughest ends to the regular season across the SEC and dropped their final four games: against Kentucky at the buzzer, a 15-point drubbing at Auburn, a tough loss in College Station, and an overtime loss at home against South Carolina. State hasn’t won since February 24…when they pounded LSU by 20 in the PMAC.
LSU, on the other hand, is coming into tomorrow winners of three of its last four games but those were against the teams playing Wednesday: aka the bottom four. And, as I just mentioned above, the last time LSU played someone in its weight class it was against Miss State and they beat LSU’s ass in Baton Rouge.
Making the NIT would be an incredible achievement for Matt McMahon in year two, especially considering last season. LSU was 2-16 in the league last season, and predicted to finish 13th coming into this year. An NIT berth would be proof that the program is heading in the right direction and it all starts with a win tomorrow. Oh, and if Matt McMahon wants to cut down the nets in Nashville and win the SEC Tournament I wouldn’t say no to that either.