While the draw is better than most with the four teams in it, it definitely isn’t favorable for LSU as it will travel to Chapel Hill to take on fourth overall seed Florida and a pesky Wofford squad.
LSU will travel to the lovely state of North Carolina to be one of four teams participating in the Chapel Hill Regional of the 2024 NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament.
LSU, who is the No. 2 seed, will first face off against No. 3 seed Wofford at 11 a.m. CT on Saturday. If it wins that game, it will face the winner of the host, North Carolina and LIU.
LSU is coming off a strong performance in the SEC Tournament where it advanced to the SEC Tournament championship game before losing against top-ranked Tennessee 4-3.
LSU, which is one of the hottest teams in college baseball, won four of its last five SEC series which includes a series win over then top-ranked Texas A&M. The Tigers have won seven of its last eight games as well.
However, it will have a tough regional as North Carolina has one of the top home-field advantages in college baseball and Wofford is a favorite pick among the
Can LSU shock North Carolina?
North Carolina (42-13) is the fourth overall seed and the host of the Chapel Hill regional. If the Tar Heels were to win out, they would be the host of the Super Regional.
North Carolina is historically one of college baseball’s best programs. The Tar Heels have advanced to the College World Series 11 times in its history, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2006 and 2007. Seven of its 11 appearances have happened since 2006.
The Tar Heels are the fourth overall seed for good reason as they won the regular season conference championship with a conference record of 22-8. Their conference is no slouch either as the ACC has seven teams ranked in D1Baseball.com’s Top 25 poll, which is tied for the most with the SEC. The ACC also has five host sites as well with Clemson, Florida State, NC State and Virginia joining North Carolina as the hosts.
North Carolina is an excellent hitting team in a pitcher-friendly park as it is 21st in home runs, 22nd in batting average and 23rd in on-base percentage.
The biggest threats from behind the plate are first baseman Parks Harber, left fielder Casey Cook and centerfielder Vance Honeycutt.
Harber is batting .351 with six doubles, one triple, 20 home runs and 60 RBIs. Cook has a .345 batting average with 10 doubles, one triple, 18 homers and a team-high 76 RBIs. Honeycutt leads the team in home runs with 22 and stolen bases with 28 on 31 attempts.
North Carolina is a solid pitching team as well as they are 12th in FIP, 14th in ERA, 35th in WHIP, 49th in walks allowed per nine innings and 52nd in hits allowed per nine innings. Keep in mind, 295 teams play baseball at the Division I level so all of these stats are impressive given that they play in the ACC.
The biggest advantage that North Carolina has is its home-field advantage. This season, the Tar Heels are a whopping 32-2 at home. As mentioned, a lot of this is because Bryson Field at Boshamer Stadium, North Carolina’s home field, is a pitcher-friendly park as its dimensions are slightly bigger than the ones at Alex Box Stadium. It also is one of the rowdiest ballparks around the country come the postseason as it generally sells out.
If LSU wants to pull this thing out, Luke Holman has to be on fire from the mound and the bats have to come through as the Tar Heels are a solid team all around. I’m not sure if LSU can pull this thing out. Nevertheless, what I do know is that LSU is one of the scariest teams right now because it has been playing its best baseball.
Which version of LSU will we get?
This is arguably the biggest question of the weekend. For most of the season, LSU looked lackluster in every single game it had played. LSU struggled for most of the year due to inconsistent hitting behind the plate, allowing multiple two-out RBIs on the mound and getting run-ruled in rubber match games.
It went down like this: LSU would win the first game, have a decent lead over the opponent in the middle of the game only to blow it late and then lose the rubber match by mercy rule. That was a typical conference series for LSU.
LSU looked all over the place like a Jackson Pollock painting. It looks nice and there’s a bunch of colors. Even so, it’s hard to decipher what it stands for and the meaning of what’s it all about.
However, things changed in April as LSU won four of its last five SEC series including a series win over then No. 1 Texas A&M. The momentum continued into the SEC Tournament as LSU outscored Top 10 teams Georgia and Kentucky 20-1, came back from behind to win twice against South Carolina before losing 4-3 to No. 1 Tennessee.
LSU’s offense and pitching have finally gelled together. But here’s the question: Will we get the Gorilla Ball version that LSU has historically been or will we get the Jackson Pollack version?
Could Wofford play a spoiler?
LSU’s opponent on Saturday is Wofford, who is the No. 3 seed of the Chapel Hill Regional. The Terriers look like another mid-major that LSU will blow out by 12-3. However, Wofford is one of the nation’s best-hitting teams.
Wofford is first in triples (33), tied for second in hits, third in batting average (.340) and 17th in slugging percentage (.541).
Infielder Dixon Black is hitting .368 with 16 doubles, five triples, 13 homers and a team-high 75 RBI. Infielder/outfielder Tyler Hare leads the Terriers in home runs with 16. Outfielder Marshall Toole is batting a team-high .383 with 15 doubles, a team-high 10 triples, nine homers, 64 RBI and 42 stolen bases.
The Terriers are also one of the nation’s best at getting on plate as they are 3rd in on-base percentage and 27th in walks.
The Wofford pitching staff isn’t a strong one as it has a 5.75 cumulative ERA with 474 strikeouts in 508.2 innings. However, LSU will have a handful in starting pitcher Zac Cowan on Saturday.
Cowan is 9-2 on the year with a 3.55 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 104 innings. He has recorded three complete games and he’s limiting opponents to a .240 cumulative batting average.
LSU should win against Wofford but it’s going to be a tough outing for the Tigers. If Gage Jump doesn’t get off to a hot start and the Terriers are feeling it from behind the plate, it could be a long day for the Tigers if they are having a sluggish day as well behind the plate.