The script couldn’t be written better for LSU in the first weekend of March Madness.
March Madness is once again in Baton Rouge as LSU will be hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center for the third year in a row.
LSU, who is the No. 3 seed in the Albany Regional, will take on the No. 14 seed Rice following the conclusion of the game between 11th-seeded Middle Tennessee and the No. 6 seed Louisville at noon CT.
Although LSU should advance to the Sweet 16 due to home-court advantage as well as the talent advantage, it is March Madness. Also, with the ever-increasing parity in women’s college basketball, LSU could easily fall victim to the Ides of March.
Here are three storylines you should follow this weekend.
The Health of the Tigers
LSU reserve guard Last-Tear Poa returns after suffering a concussion in the SEC Tournament. She practiced with her team on Wednesday and Thursday and will be a full-go for Rice on Friday.
Freshman sensation Mikaylah Williams should be a full go against Rice as well after not playing for most of the SEC tournament with a foot injury and playing limited minutes in the loss to South Carolina in the SEC Championship on March 10. However, I still think she plays limited minutes in the first-round game to save her for the second round against a tougher opponent.
If LSU wants to not only survive this weekend let alone the tournament as a whole, it needs to be as healthy as it possibly can be.
A Sneak Peek of Louisville
You should never look past an opponent to look forward to the next game, but we are going to do that anyway. If LSU defeats Rice in the first round as it should, the Bayou Bengals will face the winner of Louisville and Middle Tennessee.
Louisville (24-9), who is the sixth seed, will be a good litmus test to see how far this LSU team can go despite the lack of depth.
The Cardinals have been one of the best teams in women’s college basketball since Jeff Walz took over the program in 2007. Walz has led the Cardinals to one ACC championship, 12 Sweet 16 appearances, eight Elite Eight appearances and four trips to the Final Four with its most recent in 2022.
Under Walz, Louisville finished as the national runner-up in 2009 and 2013 with both of those teams losing against an undefeated Connecticut team. You could make the case that Walz’ trophy case would be much larger if it weren’t for the Huskies as both Louisville and Connecticut were in the same conference for the first seven years of his tenure at Louisville.
Louisville is a decent offensive team as they are currently 31st in field goal percentage (45.2%), 50th in scoring offense (73.5 points per game), and 74th in offensive rebounds. The Cardinals are excellent in getting to the free throw line as they shoot about 20.1 free throws a game, which is good for 34th in the country, and make them 74.1% of them, which is good for 70th in the country.
However, the Cardinals are below average defensively, Despite being one of the best teams in the country in forcing turnovers, Louisville is 246th in field percentage allowed, 152nd in points allowed (63.1 points per game) and 135th in three-point percentage allowed.
If LSU’s offense gets clicking early, it could be a long night for the Cardinals.
Family Reunion?
It also should be noted that this should be an awkward family reunion between Louisville and LSU guard Hailey Van Lith.
Van Lith was a very critical member of Louisville’s squad from 2020 through 2023. A three-year starter for the Cardinals, she led them to three straight Sweet 16 appearances, two Elite Eight appearances and an appearance to the 2022 Final Four.
In her last season with the Cardinals, Van Lith averaged a team-high 19.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while also averaging 1.5 steals per game.
Middle Tennessee Cinderella Run?
Is it likely that Middle Tennessee could make a Cinderella run by beating both Louisville and LSU? It isn’t very likely, but they have the right team to do it.
Middle Tennessee is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country as they average 66 possessions per game, according to Her Hoop Stats, which is 328th in the country out of 349 teams that play Division I women’s basketball.
However, they are very efficient offensively as they are 38th in assist-to-turnover ratio (42 assists to 384 turnovers), 43rd in three-point field goal percentage and 59th in field goal percentage.
The Blue Raiders are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are sixth in the country in field goal percentage allowed, eighth in the country in scoring defense, 56th in defensive rebounds and 70th in three-point field goal percentage.
The Blue Raiders match up better with LSU than Louisville because of their slow pace and their suffocating defense. Because LSU plays up-tempo and usually struggles against slower-paced teams, LSU could be in trouble against a very pesky Middle Tennessee team.