What to know about the teams coming to play women’s basketball in Baton Rouge
The LSU Tigers women’s basketball team is set to host the first and second rounds in of the NCAA Tournament in the Pete Maravich Assembly Center for the third year in a row.
The Tigers (28-5) are the three seed, also for the third year in a row, and will open with the 14 seed Rice Owls (19-14) at 3 pm.
Joining them in Baton Rouge are the 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (24-9) and the 11 seed Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (29-4).
It is not a secret that LSU was given one of the toughest regionals in the country, in stark contrast to this year.
Last year, the Tigers were one of just two teams ranked in the beginning of the season in its region and were the highest rated in most power ratings. The Tigers ended up being the Vegas favorite in all their games. This year, three of the preseason top five are in the regional and LSU will likely be an underdog the higher rated Iowa and UCLA teams.
Furthermore, the region contains nine HerHoopsStats Top 30 teams with LSU being the second highest rated at No. 6.
LSU, however, is the only team in its region with a top 10 rating in HerHoopsStats offensive and defensive ratings which has been a defining metric of past champions (including LSU last year).
The Tigers team is led by its formidable starting five of seniors Angel Reese and Hailey Van Lith. junior Aneesah Morrow, sophomore Flau’jae Johnson, and freshman Mikaylah Williams. All five of whom should be healthy entering tournament play after injuries to Reese and Williams weakened the Tigers in SEC tournament play.
Resse and Morrow in the post are the top post duo in the country. Reese and Morrow both average a double double with Reese providing 19 points and 13.1 rebounds per game and Morrow contributing 16.5 ppg and 10 rpg. Morrow also provides 2.6 steals and 1.2 blocks.
The Tigers guard trio of Van Lith, William, and Johnson average a combined 40 points, 12.5 boards, 9.2 assists, and 4.8 steals. The trio has notably been playing better as the season has gone on with Johnson and Van Lith starting to become more comfortable from the perimeter making LSU a bit more dangerous.
The Tigers only have two major contributors off the bench in junior guard Last-Tear Poa and freshman center Aalyah Del Rosario. There are questions about how much Poa might play after leaving the SEC tournament due to a concussion that led to her being sent to the hospital.
That could be an issue for LSU as Poa has at times been the best point guard on the team and having her on the court with Van Lith has allowed Van Lith to open up her game becoming a much more potent threat for the Tigers.
The Tigers make 46.7% of their shots and clean up the boards well leading the nation in offensive rebounds. LSU has one of the most potent offenses in America with really only a couple of weaknesses there with those being they turnover the ball 15 times a game and they don’t shoot the three very often being in the bottom five in three point rate.
The Tigers defense has greatly improved through the year and the Tigers are top 15 in steals and top 9 in blocks. LSU’s lone defensive weakness has been three point defense where LSU is 99th in the country, but even that has improved through the season.
The Tigers increasingly are playing better basketball and if they can stay healthy, they have a path to the championship game.
Rice
Rice is the first team LSU will face. No 14 seed has ever knocked off a three seed before in the women’s Tournament and Rice will look to be the first one to ever do so.
That will be a hard task for the Owls. Rice ranks in the top 50 of just two stats, opponent three point rate and opponents points from three percentage, meaning that Rice does a good job at shutting down the opponent from behind the arc.
The Tigers will be more than happy to accept that as LSU makes about 5 threes a game and ranks in the bottom 10 in three point rate. It has simply not been a major part of LSU’s offense.
Rice does not rank in the bottom 50 of any major statistical categories, but they are in the bottom 100 in fouls. LSU gets to the free throw line more than any team in the nation. That could be an issue for the Owls in the game.
Rice is however very deep and plays more players than the three other teams in Baton Rouge, an advantage over LSU’s seven player advantage.
Rice went 19-14 overall and was .500 in the AAC before going on a run in the tournament. Rice has yet to beat a power opponent this season, but did come within single digits of Gonzaga.
Louisville
Last year, Van Lith led the Cardinals to a surprising Elite Eight as a five seed. This year, Louisville will have to go up against her to have a hope of doing the same.
The Cardinals are led by Jeff Walz who is nearing 500 wins. Walz has taken Louisville to five consecutive Elite Eights. They will be a tough out in Baton Rouge, if they advance part the first round.
Louisville has several marquis wins beating Gonzaga and Notre Dame, both national seeds. The Cardinals have a strong offense ranking in the top 100 in most categories, but are in the bottom five for three point rate.
In fact, three of Louisville’s starters have not made a three all season.
Louisville goes nine deep in their roster and has six players who average more than 20 minutes with starters Olivia Cochran, Nyla Harris, Kiki Jefferson, and Sydney Taylor scoring more than 10 points per game.
The Cardinals are a solid rebounding team, like LSU, ranking in the top 30 nationally in offensive rebound rate and total rebound rate. However, in both cases the Tigers are top three in the nation.
Louisville, like Rice, is also prone to foul trouble as they are in the bottom 100 in fouls and foul rate which could be an issue against the Tigers pound it into the paint offense. The Cardinals will also need to defend better inside where they have at times struggled giving up 47.2% (an area where LSU shoots over 50%).
The Cardinals enter on a bit of slide going 5-6 in their last 11 after having started 19-3 to begin the season. They will need to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since February 1st to upset LSU.
Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders have not lost in 2024.
Middle Tennessee made easy work of the CUSA with only one team coming within single digits of them. Now, they will try to get their sixth ever tournament win as their 5-20 record in the tournament is the worst of any team with 20+ tournament appearances.
They will get a team that they are familiar with in Louisville. The Blue Raiders beat the Cardinals 69-47 last season with Hailey Van Lith.
The Blue Raiders could pull off a similar upset in the opening game. HerHoopsStats even has the two teams at 25 and 26 in their power rankings.
Middle Tennessee is not super deep with five players averaging more than 30 minutes and about 6 points off of the bench. The Blue Raiders rely heavily on their starting five all of whom are seniors and juniors.
The Blue Raiders are led by guard Savannah Wheeler and forward Anastasiia Boldyreva who combine for more than 30 ppg. Boldyreva, who is 6’6”, is 5th in the nation in blocks with 2.9 per game.
The Blue Raiders has been excellent both on offense and defense. They are top 5 in opponent field goal percentage and top 3 in opponent two-point percentage, in part due to being eighth in the nation in block rate. Offensively, Middle Tennessee is the best three-point shooting team in Baton Rouge getting about 36% of their points from the three which is about 10% more than any of the other three teams.
Middle Tennesse has many of the characteristics of past Cinderellas and has become a pretty popular upset pick in round one.