Behind the Boxscore: Texas A&M

Nasty stuff this week

To be perfectly transparent I didn’t like LSU’s chances coming into Saturday. I picked LSU to lose both on the gamethread, and in the Q&A we did with Good Bull Hunting. I thought that playing at Kyle Field and going up against that A&M defense gave me pause and lo and behold that pretty much played out exactly as I feared.

But I won’t lie and say I got a little confident leading up to kickoff and I thought Aaron Anderson putting LSU up 17-7 meant LSU would be on its way to a top-five AP Poll ranking, a 7-1 record and that ever important unbeaten conference record in tact.

That’s what makes Saturday’s loss all the more painful because LSU did have control of that game for about two and a half quarters. Should they have been up by more points? Sure, but LSU had a double-digit lead midway through the third quarter and they chased Connor Weigman from the game. 99 times out of 100 LSU wins that game and grabs firm control of the SEC. Unfortunately this was the one time out of 100 they let it slip away.

5: Marcel Reed scoring drives

No one player decides a game, but I’m confident in saying Texas A&M does not win Saturday night if they don’t swap out Connor Weigman for Marcel Reed. LSU had absolutely no answer for Reed’s ability to run the game, in fact Greg Penn said they didn’t even prepare for the possibility that Reed would play.

That’s coaching malpractice on Brian Kelly and Blake Baker to not even prepare for Reed. He came into the game having started three games, and 79 passing attempts and 45 rushes. It’s not like he was a secret weapon. I understand that Weigman was QB1 (past tense, there’s no way A&M can go back to him right?) but Reed was a big part of the offense and LSU had absolutely no answer for Reed’s ability to run the ball. Hopefully Saturday was the wakeup call because Jalen Milroe, DJ Lagway, and Diego Pavia can all make plays happen with their legs. Of course of Reed’s five scoring drives, three were gifted to him on a silver platter because….

8/26/38: Texas A&M’s starting field position off of three Garrett Nussmeier interceptions

The LSU defense has improved in year one under Blake Baker, but they ain’t good enough nor deep enough to hold the line when the opposing offense starts three different drives inside your 40 yard line. LSU looked like the 2003 Tigers when Weigman was in at QB, but Reed’s skillset plus his starting field position on those three drives made LSU look like last year’s defense.

23:50: LSU’s run-to-pass ratio

This is kind of a chicken-or-egg circular argument: did LSU throw the ball too much because they can’t run the ball? Or did LSU’s inability to run the ball cause LSU to throw the ball too much? The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

I was worried leading into Saturday that this game would be a near replica of the Ole Miss game and that pretty much played out exactly like that. LSU threw it 51 times and ran it 24 against Ole Miss, and Saturday it was 50 passes vs. 23 runs. That imbalance is putting far too much pressure on Garrett Nussmeier to be perfect.

53.7: Garrett Nussmeier’s completion percentage in SEC games

Speaking of unfair pressure on Nuss, the lack of a running game is killing him and it finally came home to roost Saturday. It nearly got LSU against South Carolina, but two pick-sixes were nullified by penalties; it nearly got LSU against Ole Miss, but the Rebels blew chance after chance and LSU was able to steal a win in overtime; but LSU couldn’t dodge that bullet a third time and Nuss’s mistakes finally cost the Tigers a win.

Nuss isn’t without fault, but I think he’s been done a disservice by his coaching staff. As always I leave the film breakdowns up to Max, but in the moment it felt like LSU would take too many shot plays on first down that would fall incomplete, run into a brick wall on 2nd and 10, and on third downs you’re flipping a coin. Saturday was a failure at all levels offensively: Sloan, Nuss, receivers, blockers, and running backs. Speaking of backs, here’s one more sad stat from Saturday.

2.1: LSU’s yards per rush from running backs

“I’m telling everybody right now: we’re going to run the football.” That was Will Campbell leading up to the season opener against USC and so far his prediction has been a bust. LSU can’t keep living like this.

Maybe the offensive coaching staff is trying to recreate the 2023 LSU offense too much when it comes to the running game. I would want to run it back too!…but you can’t do that offense with the skillset Nuss has. Everyone in the stadium knows what’s coming on those zone read plays that LSU seems so hellbent on running: Nuss is giving it to Josh Williams or Kaleb Jackson or Caden Durham. If I know it’s coming, then the guys who’s job it is to stop offenses know it’s coming and they can send seven guys against LSU’s front five. There’s absolutely nowhere for Williams or Durham or Jackson to run, and the offensive coaching staff has got to do something different.

3: botched LSU field goals

Stop me when you’ve heard this one before: a Brian Kelly-led LSU team had a dogshit special teams. In 2022 it was the blocked field goals and muffed punts against Florida State; in 2023 it was LSU’s point blank refusal to return punts; and the lasting image of 2024 is going to be Slade Roy hitting an unsuspecting Peyton Todd in the shoulder with a snap. Maybe they should look into hiring one of them special teams coordinators I’ve heard so much about?

1: number of losses this counts for in the standings

As bad as Saturday was—and make no mistake it was a bad loss—it only counts for one loss in the standings and LSU’s goals are still in front of them. Did making it to Atlanta get harder? Yes. But LSU’s not dead, contrary to what dipshits like Danny Kanell think.

The only thing LSU lost on Saturday was its margin for error. If the Tigers drop one more game then yes they’re absolutely out. But a 10-2 regular season is still in play and LSU’s got three of its final four games at home. I like those odds, now it’s on them to make it happen.